THE MAP OF THE HISTORY

BEFORE CONDUCTING PEOPLE VERIFY WITH THE MAP.

This work is about theory of periodicity in history which is a practical method of forecasting of historical processes and events. That the history anyhow repeats was noticed long time ago. The question is in how many years it repeats and what character has. Bright display of cyclicity can be observed, for example, in cycles of 128 years (a cycle of social tendencies) and 12 years (a cycle of political crises).

Let's consider a following number of events:

1) 1789 (Great French revolution) + 128=1917 (Socialist revolution in Russia);

2) 1801 (Palace revolution in Russia) + 128=1929 (" Great crisis ", change of authority in Russia);

3) 1812 (Domestic war 1812 г in Russia) + 129=1941 (Great domestic war in Russia);

4) 1825 (Change of governors to Russia, the beginning of reforms) + 128=1953 (Change of governors and the beginning of reforms in Russia);

5) 1837 (the Beginning of reform of the state village in Russia)+ 128=1965 (Economic reform in Russia);

6) 1861 (the Beginning of bourgeois reforms in Russia) + 127=1988 (the Beginning of reforms on transition to the market in Russia).

Thus:

1801-1789=12, and then see table 1

table 1

It’s impossible to approve realization of the offered script unequivocally, because the work of each cycle is limited. For example, if you look at 12 years- ycle since 1905 you’ll see:

1917 - 1929 - 1941 - 1953 - 1965 - 1973? - other sequence then?

The subsequent events are less significant and are not political crises.

We find similar sequence earlier in the history for a 12-years cycle:

1777 - 1789 - 1801 - 1813 - 1825 - 1837 - 1849 - 1861 - 1873?

This row is not connected anyhow with row starting from 1917. The same law is shown practically in all available cycles.

We have considered an example of the elementary cyclic analysis. At its application, it is possible to make essential mistakes if to not consider several more factors:

1) Character of events;

2) the Form of events;

3) the Importance of events.

Externally similar events can differ considerably by these criteria.

EXAMPLE FOR THE FACTOR OF THE IMPORTANCE

 Historical analogues of English bourgeois revolution of 1649

1) the North-American bourgeois revolution 1777 (1777-1649=128 years);

2) Bourgeois revolution in Russia 1905 г (1777+128=1905).

 Historically significant event which could be compared with English bourgeois revolution - the Socialist revolution 1917 in Russia. And historical analogue of the Socialist revolution 1917 in Russia - Great French bourgeois revolution 1789 (1917-128=1789). All five events - revolutions. In character "bourgeois" - three are similar only, in character "socialist" - two, on world-wide-historical importance - only the Socialist revolution 1917 in Russia and English bourgeois revolution 1649.

This example also shows that events which are edentical under the form (revolution) can differ on character (bourgeois - socialist). And at the identical form and character of event can differ on the importance.

Table 2.

 At the pic you can see events on a diagonal are marked as red. They display of periodicity which I has named diagonal periodicity, in the analysis it represents a cycle of the importance. Between English bourgeois revolution 1649 and the Socialist revolution 1917 in Russia (both these events have greatest world-wide-historical value of all events listed in the table) 268 years (i.e. 134 years *2). If to add 134 years to 1649 – we’ll have coming nearer on the importance to the previous two event - the statement of the USA as independent state in 1783. the Most significant events are in a cycle of 134 years and cycles of multiple to it.

World-wide-historical revolutions in a cycle of 67 years (134 years / 2) can be entered in a triangle.

Table 3.

Triangle is an intermediate figure in construction of geometrical model of cycles. Properties of an internal triangle have distinctive features. The feature of formation of a cycle before the second revolution is a consequense from this triangle.

Table 4.

Except for cycles of social similarity (128 years) and importance (134 years), there is a cycle of bright display of events - 144 years.

Table 5.

 There are events in the table, the one above the other, between which 128 years. Yellow color markes bourgeois and socialist tendencies. The periods of intensive display of revolutions are shown with red colour.

In this examples only separate events are considered, but in history the whole historical tendencies repeat also., that is numbers of the interconnected events, naturally flowing one in another The rough borders of the mature periods of cultural currents resulted in the table (Mature Scholasticism, High Revival, Education) differ from borders in the accepted historical periodization a little: so, the Mature Scholasticism makes XIII century, High Revival (Italy) - the end of XV century - the first 30 years of XVI century, Education - XVIII century

Table 6.

256 years cycle can as be presented as consequence of 192 years cycles. (3*64 form 4*64)

Table 7.

On the basis of cycles of social similarity (128 years), importance (134 years), bright display of events (144 years) it is possible to make the forecast of the tendency for the near future.

Table 8.

On an example of significant world revolutions geographical laws of repeatability of events are visible. In particular, that equally significant events in a world history does not repeat in one geographical place is visible. As the class composition of participants of revolutions in one country does not coincide also, that is following revolution in one country is conducted with other forces. For example, the First North-American revolution was revolution "from below", and the second - "from above". Great October revolution was spent by "bottoms", hence, presumably expected events in Russia can be begun only by a political top and this revolution will not be great revolt. Event of 2005 is "denying" of event of 1917. ("denying" - is negative-positive display) Event of 2005 on brightness of display (a cycle of 144 years) should correspond to events of the Second North-American bourgeois revolution; on the importance - in a cycle of 134 years to the Commune of Paris; On similarity - to some events of the Commune of Paris and events previous change of authority in Russia in 1881 (a cycle of 128 years). (To the greatest degree similarity opens event being key.)

Character of revolution in many respects is defined by similar previous tendencies.

Table 9.

On cycles of 12, 16, 28 years it is possible to construct a number of expected changes in 2005.

Prospective event of 2005 is connected with events of 1993 (a cycle of 12 years). Looking how then winners built the state, it becomes clear whose interests the former president represented. The constitution of 1993 has fixed a victory of the president over parliament.

Actually, president then had the same role, as well as the CPSU under the constitution of 1977 (1993-1977 =цикл 16 years). Nobody expected, that their elect instead of parliament will generate a clan from " the close people". And subsequently, to keep the developed order " for that closed ones", he gave authority to other allmighty body of the state.

In general, such "clan" system works in interests of the limited circle of people. And, system of managing is especially of consumer character. The scientific and technical, creative potential at such system of managing practically is not demanded.

People tries suit the life theyself, and in many cases it turns out as at a "household" level. Creative activity of people demands more complex social attitudes, than that are offered by the state. More complex system of attitudes demands changes in the constitution (2005-28=1977) and the stratified management personnel reflecting interests of various social groups.

Between events the relationship of cause and effect is looked through. Tendencies are defined by the general policy of authority and mood in a society. All events, as a rule, correspond to tendencies of time. We shall consider such tendencies on an example of Russia.

The Crimean war 1853-1856 passed at the conservative government and has displeased the society which have been adjusted on reforms, instead of on war. The Crimean war 1853 essentially differed from russian-turkish war 1877-1878 begun after the Crimean war in 1861 of reform have led to change of attitudes and moods in a society. The military conflict which has followed them was natural expression of the general tendency (the military conflict as consequence of carrying out of military-political reforms).

Military and political reforms after 1861, have led Russia to russian-turkish war of 1877 which was conducted successfully that was a parameter of efficiency of military-political reforms that had place previous it.

 Before we compared separate events, now we shall compare the tendencies consisting of several events:

1-st tendency: 1853 - 1856 Crimean war, and after:

1) 1861 - reforms;

2) " approbation of reforms ": 1877 1878 russian-turkish war.

2-nd tendency: 1979 - 1989 war in Afghanistan, and after:

1) 1991 - reforms;

2) " approbation of reforms ": 2005 - 2007 russian -... War.

 Time difference between the beginnings of two "conservative" wars 1979-1853 = 126 years, and between reforms 1991 - 1861 = 130 years, between " approbations of reforms ": 2005 - 1877 = 128 years.

In the given example the importance of tendencies and events making them was not considered. 1861 was the culmination moment in development of Russia. Historical analogue of 1861 year under the offered scheme - 1991, however, it is unlike, that it has given Russia an impulse for long years.

Besides integer cycles (for example, 128 years, 144 years, 134 years) exist fractional cycles from them (for example, a cycle of 89 years = 134 years * 2/3). As the cycle of 89 years is derivative of a cycle in 134 years, - it too is a cycle of the importance.

If to add to 1917 89 years we shall receive 2005 - 2006 In a cycle of 89 years character of revolutions it is distinguished. We shall consider the First and Second North-American bourgeois revolutions. Between the beginnings of these revolutions of 88 years (1861 - 1773 = 88 years). Each of revolutions has generated new attitudes in a society. The first North-American bourgeois revolution (1773-1783) has led to formation of a social political top which has existed till 1861. The second - has generated a new top economically, instead of socially active politicians.

Something similar is in Russia. In 1917 socially focused policies came to authority, since 1991 has begun the transition period preparing change of authority in favour of economically focused politicians. Characteristic feature of this transition period is return to capitalist attitudes of times before revolution 1917 However, a Great Proletarian revolution will hardly take place in 2005 in Russia.

   One more version of cycles in history are named with me- making cycles. For example, 128 = 60 + 68, 128=72 + 56, etc. - Cycles 60, 68, 72, 56, etc. are making cycles. Their feature consists that they describe separate properties of events.

 Making cycles can be considered on an example of comparison of events in the several countries.

1917 /1918 + 67/68 = 1985 Revolutions in Russia and the Europe and Reorganization in Russia.

1923 + 68 = 1991 "Beer" putsch in Germany and attempt of revolution in Russia. Attempt of revolution in Russia is not enough compated with "Beer" putsch of 1923. Participants of revolution represented the higher authority and its interests to Russia, and in Germany movement was national.

1929 + 69 = 1998 World economic crisis and an economic crisis in Russia, stagnation in the developed countries.

1933 + 72 = 2005 Arrivals of the national socialist government to Germany and the forecast - change of a rate in Russia. In this case we are intrested in only separate making tendencies of events (the tendency in this case is a totalitarianism). So the begun economic rise in Germany after 1933 in many respects has been connected with state regulation of economy. Predicted economic growth in Russia should be connected with the government in the country.

1937 + 69 = 2006 economic stagnation, delay of growth. (I do not think, that it will be an economic crisis)

1939 + 70 = 2009 beginning of the Second world war (1939) and reorganization of geopolitic interests of Russia (2009).

1941 + 72 = 2013;

After revolution of 1917, war of 1941 was natural consequence as:

1941 – 129 = 1812

1917 – 128 = 1789

After Great French revolution of 1789 napoleonic wars started, and then domestic war of 1812 began. After great revolutions the world (world) wars are characteristic. In modern world for the last 50 years was no great revolutions. It allows to assume, that military conflicts in the near future (presumably 2013) will not be world. However, it is necessary to notice, that, probably, such analysis can appear not exact as it is not considered in it, that many criteria of the importance for the modern world have changed - world powers were replaced, character and poles of contradictions was replaced. For an example it is possible to consider contradictions before russian-turkish war 1877-1878 in a cycle of 128 years.

128 years ago the Europe approximately as well as today built attitudes with the Balkan countries and Russia. Showing indifference to internal political problems of the Balkan countries, strengthening political positions of Turkey (for example, participation of an English military contingent on the party of Turkey), weakening Russia.

And today the Europe is not adjusted to solve independently internal political problems of the Balkans, leaving the Balkan crisis at deadlock. As well as 128 years ago, for prompting the political order on the Balkans and weakening of a position of Russia, the Europe considers Turkey as the best applicant for this work. Arrival of Turkey to the Balkans as the ally of the Europe will break the fragile world on the Balkans.

Russia those times and modern Russia differ on development of tendencies. Reforms since 1861 (a cycle of 144 years) were establishing for Russia that time. Modern Russia only expects essential changes in a society. If the government will begin war that it only will aggravate contradictions before revolution it will lead the country to a spontaneous reorganization.

1917 г. + 72 = 1989 г. (For Russia 2 years ("delay" of a cycle) = 1991 - discharge of communists from authority). The beginning important, critical, events begins from 1989 - a number of " velvet revolutions ".

It is characteristic, that similar events in the different countries, proceeding at a time, lag behind from each other on a small number of years (2 years "delay" of a cycle for Russia). The earliest and simultaneously the brightest event in this chain is, as a rule, the major in a chain of these events.

During the considered period important for Russia was not only falling of a communistic mode, but also the decision of a question on the property. In 1917 has been accepted the Decree about the ground. In 1992 privatization of a state ownership has begun. The property in both variants has got to a political top. The further redistribution of the property to 1933 has left at people only fine near-mension facilities. Continuing comparison of the tendency in a question on the property with events of the past we shall make the forecast: 1933 + 72 = 2005; To 2005 for private businessmen, possibly, remains accessible conducting only small business.

72-years cyclicity of brightness of events can be considered on an example of historical revolutions.

Table 10.

It is visible that events deviate from cycles in the resulted tables. It is possible to tell the same with modern history.

On an example of 72 years cycles it is possible to consider the mechanism of drawing up of this cycle from half-cycles which are not equal among themselves. In a column of 4 years events concurrence of large events on вертикале is visible not. Revolutions of the middle of XIX century in the Europe passed in 1847-1849 г.г. 1917-1847=70 years. Such sequence of division of events in one column on bright and insignificant shows the chess mechanism of filling of columns.

Table 11.

The same could be said from the table of 72-years cycles with a cycle of 12 years between the events.

Table 12.

The offered table shows two 12-years cycles: positive and negative. Positive (++++) characterizes national enthusiasm, consolidation of a society around of overall aims. Negative (----) - introvertial society.

All cycles are interconnected among themselves in mathematics.

Table 13.

Probably, with application of centenary cycles features of similarity of events and the some people lifes can be shown.

On an example of similarity of bourgeois revolution in the Netherlands and the North-American bourgeois revolution the characteristic 200 years cycles (100*2=200 years) is shown.

Table 14.

It is possible to expand such sequence still with a number of events. For drawing up of the forecast it is required to consider other three of cycles also. The table of the cyclic mechanism of union-making is presented in a general view with the minimal set of cycles.

Table 15.

Unifying processes in the modern Europe in many respects correspond to unifying processes in America and Germany of 60th, 70th years of XIX century (a cycle of similarity of 128 years, 1865 + 128=1993). For Russia this repetition is not impossible to realize, that is connected with character of previous revolution of 1917. Events of formation of Russia occurs in other rows of cyclic similarity.

Wars are also in cyclic dependence.

Table 16.

In this table two 64-years vertical rows of some events are traced and one diagonal number close to a 72-years cycle. This rows of events qualitatively differ on the properties. The cycle of 64 years is a half-cycle of 128 years.

If the government can operate a varying country war can be prevented. It is shown in following table that if the authority skilfully carries out reforms is does not cause internal political crises. The same concerns foreign policy.

Table 17.

Сycles with the period less than year also exist. By the first consideration cycles on brightness of display of event (283 days) are visible. Cycles of similarity and the importance also exist.

Table 18.

The cyclic analysis assumes, that through rather equal time intervals there is a situation promoting display of the certain events. How will pass events is defined by their participants within the limits of the given situation.

Table 19. (the chronicle of acts of terrorism in Russia from 31.08.99 till 01.09.04)

Mechanisms of cyclicity and the analysis of a situation can assume display of acts of terrorism. Realization of acts of terrorism can be not connected with problems of the Chechen Republic, and is spent as diversive activity with the purpose of destabilization in the country.

The larger the cycles and events which repeated in these cycles, the more is probability of recurrence of event. Cycles can be formed by different ways. Inside of a 64-years cycle cycles of 24 and 28 years are shown. The cycle 24 years is formed by two 12-years cycles, and a cycle of 28 years - 12-years and 16 years cycles (12+16). The 16-years cycle on the one hand is a guarter of 64-years cycle (64/4), on the other hand is formed by two 12-years cycles.

Table 20.

Such table also can be presented in the form of a square 12 for 12 years.

Table 21.

Inside of cyclicity there are laws of generalization of cycles. Such mechanism is shown in the following table.

Table 22.

For world economic crisises cycles interwine. And except for 12 and 16 years local cycles reveal a global cycle of 28 years.

Table 23.

Frequently the historical tendency characterized also on activity of outstanding personalities during this time.

Let's consider, for example, Pushkin and Vysotsky's creativity in a cycle of 128 years:

1. Changes of authority during the Pushkin epoch and later:

In 1825 Nikolay I has come to authority who has tried to incur a role " the revolutionary from above ", and then has replaced course from reformatory to conservative.

1855 - Alexander II has come to authority.

1855-1825=30 years of board of Nikolay I.

Changes of authority during Vysotsky's epoch and later:

Let's calculate:

1825 (Nikolay's I accession) + 128 = 1953 (Khruschev's coming to power)

1855 (Alexander's II accession) +128 = 1983 (In 1982 Antropov comes to authority).

1982-1953=29 years - the period of board of N. Khruschev (the liberal reformer) and L.Brezhnev (conservative) in Russia.

2. Character of political creativity of Pushkin:

Pushkin's political creativity is the or open, rectilinear challenge to authority or " plotted" (only for close people) creativity. Decembrists and Pushkin opposed verticals of authority (for constitutional monarchy), that did not mean direct participation of broad masses in management of a public life.

Character of political creativity of Vysotsky:

Vysotsky's political creativity was democratic, that is is already adjusted on participation of people in management of a public life, (Khrushyov’s "thawing weather"). During Brezhnev’s time Vysotsky's creativity began to be expressed with " Ezop’s language ". Almost same intricate language in days of Brezhnev spoke against a bureaucratic mode (against system).

Cyclicity of display of lifes of outstanding personalities, do not coincide with cycles of similar tendencies. In the figure below it is visible, that the cycle of" blossoming of creativity " of two outstanding personalities (Pushkin, Vysotsky) makes not 128 years, but approximately 144 years. If events absolutely coincided (under all three above-named factors), repeating in one cycle the history would not develop. Therefore similarity of events and their tendencies in one cycle rather conditionally.

Table 24

 In the table the friend above the friend there are events, between which are 128 years. Yellow color markes the periods of blossoming of creativities of two poets (Pushkin, Vysotsky). Between the beginnings of blossoming in creativities Pushkin and Vysotsky are 145 years (1968 -1823).

Mechanisms of cyclicity differ for great prophets and other cycles here work like basis.

Cycles which are multiple to 64 years: 192-years and 256-years cycles interwine and draw a 448-years cycle. And a cycle of the importance which is multiple to 134 years can be presented as 67*3 + 67*4=467 years. Display of this cycle is shown in the following table. In the table world economic crisises and similar methods of multiplication of a cycle on factors. In this table cycles of occurrence of world religions are not shown.

Table 25

On the basis of the cyclic analysis it is possible to designate the periods of historical development. The periods of historical development do not coincide with simple cyclicity. In the following table one of mechanisms of cyclicity is shown. The evolutionary mechanism of cyclicity does not coincide with the offered periodization.

Table 26.

The offered cycles are a part of a spectrum of evolutionary radiation.

Unfortunately, while the science has no system of cycles for the analysis of history developed in details. Modern forecasts are indistinct and frequently have significant a deviation in time of passage of event and geographical definition of its place. It would be desirable, that in the future we could assume precisely day, hour and concrete participants of historical events.

Aleksandrov O.P.

The main page www.genevo.org.